Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

Donges, J. F. and Donner, R. V. and Marwan, N. and Breitenbach, S. F. M. and Rehfeld, K. and Kurths, J. (2015) Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns. Climate of the past, 11 (5). pp. 709-741. ISSN 1814-9340 DOI 10.5194/cp-11-709-2015

[img]
Preview
Text
cp-11-709-2015.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (8MB) | Preview
Official URL: http://www.clim-past.net/11/709/2015/

Abstract

Abstract. The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5–7.9, 5.7–5.0, 4.1–3.7, and 3.0–2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0–1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: NILAREP; IA70; weekly list
Subjects: 01 - Climate Change and Earth-Ocean Atmosphere Systems
Divisions: 01 - Climate Change and Earth-Ocean Atmosphere Systems
07 - Gold Open Access
Journal or Publication Title: Climate of the past
Volume: 11
Page Range: pp. 709-741
Identification Number: 10.5194/cp-11-709-2015
Depositing User: Sarah Humbert
Date Deposited: 17 Jan 2016 00:45
Last Modified: 17 Jan 2016 00:45
URI: http://eprints.esc.cam.ac.uk/id/eprint/3466

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

About cookies